NFL Week 8  

TopDawgLarry 55M
32 posts
10/28/2005 9:58 pm

Last Read:
3/5/2006 9:27 pm

NFL Week 8


Sorry I missed last week but life caught up to me a bit and I was too busy to get my picks ready for the blog. Last week I went 10-4 in my pickem league and although I was 13-1 here in week 6 I was 14-0 in my pickem league (changed the raiders last minutte.

This weeks game are tough and their should be many close games coming down to the wire. There will also be a few blow outs and a couple of surprises too Just hope I pick the right ones.

Look inside coments to see this weeks predictions and Fantasy plays. I should have AFC and NFC overviews up sometime tomorrow before I head to a Halloween party.

Good luck this week and may the best team win always! ok almost always!!

Go Bears!

TopDawgLarry 55M

10/28/2005 10:09 pm

Arizona 24 @ Dallas 30 -9 Arizona TO 11th (31st rushing, 4th passing) TD 15th (12th rushing, 19th passing) Dallas TO 6th (14th rushing, 9th passing) TD 7th (7th rushing, 14th passing). The Home team has won the last 10 games in this series. Dallas not only has the advantage in every statistic they also have the home field. Look for the Cowboys to make it 11 straight for the home team in this series. Julius Jones will not play for the 3rd straight week and the Cardinals simply can not run the football so look for a high scoring aerial assault from both teams. Fantasy plays: Great Plays Bledsoe, Glenn, and Fitzgerald Ok plays Johnson Boldin.

Chicago 20 @ Detroit 6 -3 Chicago TO 28th (11th rushing, 30th passing) TD 3rd (4th rushing, 9th passing) Detroit TO 27th (21st rushing, 27th passing) TD 9th (13th rushing, 12th passing) The Bears laid a serious thumping on the Lions early in the season the only difference in the two teams now is Jeff Garcia is now the QB in Detroit and this time the game is in Detroit where the Lions always play better. This will be a defensive and field position battle and with that said the edge clearly goes to Chicago since they can actually run the ball. Garcia is a serious upgrade at QB but the team’s receiving core is banged up and I have no idea how Detroit is going to move the ball. Look for the Bears to win fairly easily once again in a low scoring contest. Fantasy Plays: Great play Chicago Defense, Good Play Thomas Jones, Detroit Defense.

Cleveland 13 @ Houston 24 -2 Cleveland TO 26th (28th rushing, 21st passing) TD 29th (28th rushing, 23rd passing) Houston TO 32nd (15th rushing, 32nd passing) TD 30th (32nd rushing, 20th passing). A match-up of pathetic offenses and defenses! Houston problem’s on offense are centered around maybe the worst offensive line in football opening marginal holes for Davis and unable to keep defensive lineman off of Carr when he drops back in the pocket. Cleveland’s lethargic offense is more by design since they have a conservative game plan try to minimize turnovers and playing a field position game. I like Houston to win its first game this year and look for Dominick Davis to lead the way. Fantasy Plays: Great Play Dominick Davis

Green Bay 24 @ Cincinnati 34 -9 Green Bay TO 16th (30th rushing, 6th passing) TD 14th ( 11th rushing, 17th passing) Cincinnati TO 4th (13th rushing, 7th passing) TD 17th (27th rushing, 10th passing). Cincinnati leads the NFL in Turnover margin at +16! The Packers have all but given up on the running game due to injuries a good thing for the Bengal’s run defense which struggles to stop a good running game. So now the Packers and Brett Favre are playing into Cincinnati’s Strength on defense. Farve will have to limit his mistakes and the young and inexperienced receivers will have to play their best game of the year for the Packers to have a chance. Look for Cincinnati to do mix up the run and pass keeping the Packers defense guessing. Cincinnati should pull away in the second half to win easily. Fantasy Plays: Great Plays Palmer, C. Johnson, Favre, Good Plays Cincinnati D, R. Johnson

Jacksonville 23 @ St. Louis 17 +3 Jacksonville TO 24th (16th rushing, 22nd passing) TD 5th (23rd rushing, 2nd passing) St. Louis TO 5th (21st rushing, 3rd passing) TD 28th (19th rushing, 27th passing). For the rams to have a legitimate chance here they will need to make a strong commitment to the running game something they haven’t shown in over 3 years so there’s no reason to think they will! Jamie Martin will get his second straight start at QB for the rams unfortunately he’s going up against the leagues 2nd best pass defense. Look for the Jags to do what they always do mixing the run and pass well controlling field and time of position putting one of the leagues finest defenses in and ideal situation. Fantasy Plays: Good Jags D, Fred Taylor, Holt. Ok plays St. Louis D, Jackson, Schobe

Minnesota 27 @ Carolina 24 -8 Minnesota TO 22nd ( 26th rushing, 11th passing) TD 25th (30th rushing, 15th passing) Carolina TO 23rd ( 24th rushing, 16th passing) TD 20th (3rd rushing, 27th passing). Interesting match up as almost every game is this week. Neither team can run offsetting the Panthers advantage to stop the run since the Vikings will make very little effort to establish a running game. In the passing game I give the Vikings a slight edge only because their pass defense is significantly better than Carolina’s and has been improving in recent weeks. Steve Smith and Carolina have quick strike potential that the Vikings do not have. I think the Vikings found themselves in the second half of last weeks game and think they will move forward from that. This should be a close game and could easily come down to who has the ball last. I am picking the Vikings to win this one but they can’t be -2 or more in the turnover battle.
Fantasy Plays: Great Plays Culpepper, Delhomme, Smith.

Oakland 27 @ Tennessee 34 + 1.5 Oakland TO 10th ( 25th rushing, 5th passing) TD 24th (18th rushing, 25th passing) Tennessee TO 18th (19th rushing, 12th passing) TD 13th (18th rushing, 13th passing). Why is Oakland favored? Having searched through all the statistics I can’t figure out why Oakland is favored in this game especially since it’s in Tennessee. Is it because Moss is Healthy or is because McNair is out and Volek in (not a downgrade at all) or is because Raider fan bets more? Most likely it’s the later. The Raiders need Jordan to be a major factor this week and throughout the rest of the season (like last week) to balance what potentially could be an explosive offense (one game doesn‘t make a season). Tennessee will be well balanced on offense and the team has been very completive in most games this season and maybe with Volek in the lineup they will cut down on turnovers. The Raiders still can’t stop anybody from making plays down field via the air and look for this pattern to continue. I like the Titians at Home! Fantasy Plays: This game is shaping up to be a fantasy monster! Great plays: Moss, Collins, Volek, Good plays: Jordan, Brown, Calico Ok Plays both kickers, Troupe.

Washington 23 @ NY Giants 13 -2 Washington TO 2nd (4th rushing, 8th passing) TD 4th (15th rushing, 4th passing) Giants TO 15th (17th rushing, 13th passing) TD 31st (21st rushing, 31st passing). To be honest and open the redskins are a far superior team and have the advantage on both sides of the ball. For the Giants to have any chance in this one they will need to have a superior effort, a Great Crowd, and continue to create turnovers against a team that doesn’t really turn the ball over much despite being minus 6 in turnover ratio (the defense as good as it is hasn’t been creating turnovers). Look for the Redskins to pound away with portis and strike deep with moss when the defense of the giants over commits to stopping the run. When the Giants have the ball look for them to give Barber a heavy load both running and receiving. The Skins are relentless in their pressure against opposing QB so don’t look for Manning to have a lot of time in the pocket. Look for the Washington to pull this one out and take a huge step towards the playoffs. Fantasy plays: Great play Portis, Brunell (MVP so far), Barber, Good Plays Moss

Kansas City 27 @ 28 San Diego -6 KC TO 9th (6th rushing, 15th passing) TD 27th (8th rushing, 30th passing) SD TO 14th (9th rushing, 19th passing) TD 21st (2nd rushing, 29th passing). Two teams with mirror personalities who will prevail. Both teams like to run setting up the passing game and both have big time running backs. There will be 3 keys to this game and whoever does the best in two of them will win this one. Who will run the ball more effectively? Slight edge SD. Who will do the best in the passing game? Slight edge KC. Who will convert best on 3rd down keeping their defense freshest? Who knows!! Talk about bad luck San Diego has played well in every game and should have a few more wins but something always goes against them. Since the chargers are at home and this is a must game for them in order to stay in serious contention for a playoff spot I believe they will find a way to hold on for a narrow victory (the ball finally bounces their way).
Fantasy Plays: Great Play: Brees, Green Good Plays Tomlinson, Holmes, Gates, Gonzalez, Ok plays Tynes, Kadding.

Miami 13 @ New Orleans 28 -2 Miami TO 21st (18th rushing, 18th passing) TD 18th (20th rushing, 16th passing) New Orleans TO 12th (10th, 17th passing) TD 18th (26 rushing, 8th passing). The Saints lead the league in turnovers having committed a dreadful 21 in 7 games and are -12 in turnover ratio. Miami has been struggling ever since their bye week and are team losing confidence in themselves and in their QB. The Saints on the other hand do not lack confidence just leadership! If the Saints can eliminate turnovers they should cruise to victory in this one but, since they are the Aints I wouldn’t look for that trend to stop. When its all said and done the New Orleans will win fairly easily. Fantasy Plays: Great Brown (he will get his) Good plays Brooks, Hakim, Ok Play Saints D

Philadelphia 27 @ Denver 30 -3.5 Philly TO 7th (32nd rushing, 1st passing) TD 20th (10th rushing, 22nd passing) Denver TO 12th (2nd rushing, 25th passing) TD 22nd (5th rushing, 26th passing) Denver is smarting after letting get one get away last week and returning to home friendly Mile High should help them tremendously in this one. A battle of wills shaping up here as the Eagles don’t even really bother trying to run the ball while they soar through the air offensively. On the other hand the Broncos want to run it down your throat and pass off of play action. Plummer will have to stay efficient and control the ball for Denver like he has most of the season while the two headed monster of Bell and Anderson pound away at the Philadelphia defense hopefully wearing them out by the 4th quarter. The Eagles will need Westbrook to be a huge factor in the receiving game and both him and TO need to be wary of some hard hitting after the catch. I’m not sure the Eagles can shut down the Denver rushing attack like they did last week against Tomlinson but if they do they will leave Mile High with a Huge victory! Going to take the Broncos in close game as they control the clock and are more fresh for the fourth quarter when fatigue will be a factor. Fantasy Plays: Great Plays McNabb, Westbrook, Good plays Owens, Bell, Anderson, Ok play Elam

Tampa Bay 27 @ San Francisco 3 +11 Tampa TO 19th (5th rushing, 22nd passing) TD 1st (1st rushing, 7th passing) San Fran TO 31st (23 rushing, 29th passing) TD 32nd (24th rushing, 32nd passing). You can throw out the offensive numbers for Tampa Bay because for the rest of the season they will be a different team with Chris Simms at the helm. The 49ers have been pathetic on both sides of the ball and in attempt to stir things up a bit they’re starting Dorsey at QB in hopes of igniting a spark. Actually the 49ers are probably just trying to save this years #1 Alex Smith a severe beating by the leagues best defense if truth be told. Defense will be the story of this game at least from 1 team anyways. The #1 Defense vs. the second worst offense hmmm wonder who will win this battle. A mediocre offense vs. the leagues worst wonder who wins on this side too. Tampa Bays defense is BACK and maybe better than the glory years under the previous regime. This one could get ugly if Chris Simms has any success early and even if he doesn’t I wouldn’t look for the 49ers to score more than 7 points anyway. Hell Tampa Bays defense may outscore the 49ers they are a +6 in the take way department while the 49ers are near the bottom at -8. Fantasy plays: Great Plays Tampa Defense all other players are marginal at best considering the offensive changes and injuries.

Buffalo 13 @ New England 31 -9 Buffalo TO 30th (12th rushing, 31st passing 3rd passing) TD 16th ( 31st rushing, New England TO 3rd (26th rushing, 2nd passing) TD 26th (25th rushing, 27th passing). New England’s defense is nowhere what it was during their 3 Super Bowl campaigns or what they expected it to be like this year due to injury but they have one of the best coaches at overcoming diversity and game planning. Buffalo’s weak offensive unit should muster a few drives but New England will be ready for the hurry up offensive scheme Buffalo has been using in recent weeks and this game should help restore the Pats struggling defensive units confidence. Look for a heavy dose of Corey Dillon when the pats have the ball setting up some huge play action passing plays from Tom Brady. Buffalo should pound away with McGahee in an attempt to shorten the game controlling the clock and managing field position. New England is still one the leagues best on offense and converts on well over 40% of its 3rd down opportunities. Look for the Patriots to wear out a decent Buffalo defense to win easily at home. Fantasy Plays: Great Plays: Dillon Good Plays McGahee, Brady Ok plays New England D, Vinatieri, Branch

Baltimore 13 @ Pittsburgh 16 -10 Baltimore TO 25th (20th rushing, 20th passing) TD 2nd (9th rushing, 1st passing) Pittsburgh TO 20th (7th rushing, 24th passing) TD 8th (6th rushing, 18th passing). Looking at the stats this appears to be a fairly evenly matched game. There is however a few glaring differences for the Steelers sack the QB more and create more turnovers due to their pressure. For the Ravens to have any chance they must do a better job of securing the ball and must take advantage of the Pittsburgh blitz when they don’t get to the QB. There will be opportunities for the ravens to make plays downfield whether or not they take advantage of them or not is another story. Maybe after being criticized by fellow teammates Jamal Lewis react in postitive manner and put forth the type of effort we use to see a few years ago punshing defenders and running hard. Look for the Steelers to stick to form running the ball which will not be easy against the Ravens and going downfield off of play action. Look for a very close game coming down to the wire with the Steelers pulling it out in a low scoring slug fest. Fantasy plays: Great Plays Pittsburgh D, Good Play Baltimore D Forget about all position players for the Defenses of both teams are to good if you don’t have other options Parker and Lewis are playable but wouldn’t look for many points or yards from either. If you can get anything for Lewis you might want to consider trading him for even if does start giving 100% the upcoming schedule is brutal!

7 team 6 point teaser special of the week

Baltimore +16, New England -3, Philly +9.5, Minnesota +14 Arizona +15, Chicago +9 Washington +8

Straight up plays

***** Washington +2
**** Minnesota +8
*** Chicago +3
*** Saints -2
*** New England -9
*** Baltimore +10
** Tennessee +2
** Arizona +9
** Tampa Bay -11 (against the rules)


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