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A new cash position for the poor...
A new cash position for the poor...
Pressed for time the blog writer works to express thought while the reader (also pressed for time,)considers the value of time wasted on unpublished dogma.
This morning I spent awhile by candlelight observing my scattered thoughts contemplating the stock market, probability and strategy. I think I am more intelligent having finally learned to look at profit margins and sales figures instead of stock fluctuations and composite trends. The market will tend to act one way while the robust economy acts another, anyway. I realize probability to profit significantly on a stock play is about 1:6. (A lucky person pretends to be intelligent at times.) I didn't lose much recently, but have taken notice of stocks that took turns beyond my expectation. Now that I have contemplated such activity I can hope to benefit from a certain regard for the truth about the stock market.
Coming off a cold, I struggle to keep a focus on an outline for structured thinking; which is a normal concern for most everyone. At this time I manifest a little attention deficit disorder enhanced by the new cold medication, and will attempt to use it like a drug to coherce honesty and perspective in my observations. I benefit greatly from the reduction of sinus swelling in that my eyes are comfortable enough to allow extended activity reading and writing. Some of my thinking is processed and significant now after a definate period of several uncomfortable days that lacked much processing.
With the market I have developed an interest and am now intrigued with indexes and the positioning of cash (to take advantage of perceived opportunity.) After positioning the cash for a (1:6 play) then I think its ideal to commit a window of time to allow the money to be positioned for a predicted profit opportunity. In trading its the hold that makes the money, while its the cash held that positions you for opportunity. This is especially true in fast moving day-trading. I have best regard for swing trading that usually requires a few days to create a potential for change, (but some rare opportunities come along that are just no-brainers.)
I have decided the market is like the universe or the ocean with its mystery and its tides of force that change constantly. Consensus shapes the tidal movements tha on the surface seem choppy like waves, though underneath are strong towing currents in optimism. I think the composite index indicates a sense of the latter optimism when screened with perspective and experience. Technical gurus will of course relate many indicatorsto interpret compositely as BUY/Sell triggers, while I am learning to correlate my own custom indices to a meaningful assertion of truth. (Its allot easier to seem a bit academic when not holding a position!)
My custom index for #1 rated financial companies with operating margins above 10% gives me a perspective on profit taking. This morning's activity allows me to check for a point at which the investors who took profits out are beginning to buy back into positions in this sector of stocks (which they are not as the market begins to rebound at 1960.) I need to spend awhile alerting myself to the value of tracking the custom indices of select groups of stocks. This activity should broaden my sense for market truth.
It would be a wonderful world if we could simply buy stock in a company never to take profit, except in the form of an issued credit card with a fluctuating value determined by our contributuion and corporate performance. With a few twists it might become possible someday...
Weather here is turning springlike and winter is now merely that tarnished feel of torment.